Boeing has revised upwards its market forecast for aircraft deliveries over the next 20 years, with the rise of low-cost carriers (LCC) and emerging markets fuelling demand for passenger travel and cargo volumes.
The Boeing Current Market Outlook (CMO) for 2017-2036 said 41,030 aircraft would be delivered over the next two decades, with 57 per cent to be used for growth and the remainder as replacement of older airframes.
The forecast represented $6.05 trillion worth of aircraft at list prices. The forecast is contained in the manufacturer’s 2017-2036 CMOpresented at the Paris Airshow.
It is an increase of 3.6 per cent from 39,620 new aircraft deliveries predicted in the 2016-2035 CMO published a year ago.
Boeing Commercial Airplanes Vice President, Marketing Randy Tinseth said passenger traffic was expected to grow 4.7 per cent a year for the next 20 years.’’
“The market is especially hungry for single-aisle airplanes as more people start travelling by air,” Tinseth said in a statement.
There was an upward revision for the single-aisle (90-230 seats) market, with 29,530 new aircraft expected to be delivered over the next 20 years, up 4.9 per cent from 28,140 in the 2016-2035 CMO.
“These new airplanes will continue to stimulate growth for low-cost carriers and will provide required replacements for older, less-efficient airplanes,” the 2017-2036 CMO said.
The report noted the LCC “business model’s success for short-haul routes is evident in the current aviation market”.
Further, the rapid expansion of LCCs in Asia had been a key contributor to the overall growth in the short-haul market since the early 2000s, the report said. In some home markets, the penetration rate for LCCs had risen to more than 50 per cent amid double-digit percentage growth rates over the past decade.
“While established network carriers continue responding to aggressive competition posed by the low-cost business models, our current backlog and forecast project that LCCs will penetrate further into the short-haul market and increase regional connectivity,” the report said.